Leveraged trading for Polymarket prediction markets arrive to subdued initial open interest

Leveraged trading for Polymarket's prediction markets has officially launched on the Polygon mainnet via the D8X exchange. However, the initial open interest has been relatively subdued, indicating challenges in attracting users from more established spot markets.

Traders can now interact with markets through various front ends, including FreelyPerps, OctoFi, and DefiSaint, using their crypto wallets. Users can place leveraged bets on significant events, such as the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election, where Donald Trump's current mark price stands at 0.4893, with an open interest of 30 TRUMP24 contracts.

Another market available is the prediction for the San Francisco 49ers winning the Super Bowl in 2025, which has a mark price of 0.1062 and an open interest of 10 SUPBWL49 contracts. This modest open interest contrasts sharply with the $1 billion volume seen in the Polymarket spot market.

Other platforms like SynFutures, dYdX, and Injective are also launching or planning to introduce leveraged prediction market products. SynFutures recently launched its own leveraged prediction markets, acquiring 24,700 Trump contracts to date, although it reported only $245 in volume over the last 24 hours.

The potential for prediction market derivatives is clear, particularly given Polymarket's success in 2024. However, it remains uncertain whether the user experience on Polymarket's platform is driving growth or if the nature of the markets themselves is a factor. The future of this derivatives market will depend on whether users are willing to transition from Polymarket's front end.

What is D8X Exchange?

D8X is an institutional-grade decentralized exchange designed for derivatives trading. It addresses the complexities of managing risk in prediction markets, which resolve to either 0 or 1 based on outcomes, by implementing a dynamic system for leverage, fees, and slippage. This innovative approach aims to maintain stability from a risk management perspective.

Caspar Sauter, co-founder of D8X, stated, “Our Leveraged Prediction Markets are an entirely new product. We are huge fans of Polymarket and are thrilled to offer users the opportunity to place their bets with leverage. This allows D8X users to maximize potential earnings while controlling their risk levels.”

The new product utilizes Polymarket's spot feeds for input. Markets available at launch include predictions on whether the movie "Inside Out 2" will be the highest-grossing film of 2024 and if Tim Walz will be the Democratic nominee for vice president on Election Day. Future plans include expanding to all Polymarket feeds across various sectors like sports, politics, pop culture, business, and science.

However, it appears that non-political markets are even less popular in derivative formats compared to their spot counterparts, as the "Inside Out 2" market had yet to attract a single contract by the time of this report. While Polymarket has thrived with US election betting, other markets have struggled to gain traction.

To support these markets, D8X has integrated feeds from Stork Lab’s Open Data Market, which provides ultra-low-latency trading data crucial for real-time prediction markets. Meredith Pitkoff, co-founder of Stork Labs, remarked, “Stork is the only major provider of real-time prediction market feeds. D8X’s new Leveraged Prediction Markets are an exciting opportunity to showcase how Stork is reimagining pricing oracles with customizable, high-quality data.”

Leveraged Prediction Markets via D8X

D8X’s trading system automatically adjusts leverage, fees, and slippage based on current market conditions. Maximum leverage decreases when uncertainty is highest—when probabilities approach 50%. Increased uncertainty results in higher fees, and trades that skew the market incur additional costs. The platform also features dynamic slippage that adapts to market conditions.

Initially available on D8X front ends on Arbitrum, these Leveraged Prediction Markets will soon expand to Polygon zkEVM and X Layer. The platform's on-chain trading engine accepts any ERC-20 token as collateral, including liquid restaking tokens, showcasing its flexibility.

Since its launch on Polygon zkEVM in February, D8X has expanded to X Layer in May and Arbitrum in June. The platform plans to introduce the D8X token within the next two quarters, following a successful pre-seed funding round that raised $1.5 million with participation from various investors, including Polygon Ventures, Axelar, and others.

D8X aims to create “incorruptible financial machines” accessible to all, including traditional financial institutions, and serves as a white-label engine for managing perpetual futures markets on-chain.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) about Leveraged Trading on Polymarket

1. What is the recent development regarding leveraged trading on Polymarket?
Leveraged trading for Polymarket's prediction markets has launched on the Polygon mainnet through the D8X exchange. This allows users to place leveraged bets on various events.

2. What is the current status of open interest for these leveraged markets?
The initial open interest for the leveraged trading markets has been relatively low, indicating challenges in attracting users compared to more established spot markets.

3. Which platforms can users access for leveraged trading?
Users can engage with leveraged trading markets through various front ends, including FreelyPerps, OctoFi, and DefiSaint, using their crypto wallets.

4. What types of events can users bet on?
Users can place leveraged bets on significant events, such as the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election and other sports predictions, like the San Francisco 49ers winning the Super Bowl in 2025.

5. How does the open interest compare to Polymarket's spot market?
The open interest for the newly launched leveraged markets is modest, with a stark contrast to the $1 billion volume seen in Polymarket's spot market.

6. What is D8X and its role in this launch?
D8X is an institutional-grade decentralized exchange designed for derivatives trading. It facilitates leveraged prediction markets using Polymarket's spot feeds for input.

7. What unique features does D8X offer for leveraged prediction markets?
D8X employs a dynamic system for managing leverage, fees, and slippage based on current market conditions, allowing users to maximize potential earnings while controlling risk.

8. What types of markets are available at launch?
At launch, markets include predictions on whether "Inside Out 2" will be the highest-grossing film of 2024 and whether Tim Walz will be the Democratic nominee for vice president on Election Day.

9. Are there any challenges with non-political markets?
Yes, non-political markets appear to be even less popular in derivative formats compared to their spot counterparts. For example, the "Inside Out 2" market had not attracted any contracts by the time of the report.

10. How does D8X ensure real-time data for trading?
D8X integrates feeds from Stork Lab’s Open Data Market, which provides ultra-low-latency trading data essential for real-time prediction markets.